!python -m pip install statsmodels
Requirement already satisfied: statsmodels in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (0.14.1) Requirement already satisfied: numpy<2,>=1.18 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from statsmodels) (1.25.2) Requirement already satisfied: scipy!=1.9.2,>=1.4 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from statsmodels) (1.11.4) Requirement already satisfied: pandas!=2.1.0,>=1.0 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from statsmodels) (1.5.3) Requirement already satisfied: patsy>=0.5.4 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from statsmodels) (0.5.6) Requirement already satisfied: packaging>=21.3 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from statsmodels) (23.2) Requirement already satisfied: python-dateutil>=2.8.1 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from pandas!=2.1.0,>=1.0->statsmodels) (2.8.2) Requirement already satisfied: pytz>=2020.1 in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from pandas!=2.1.0,>=1.0->statsmodels) (2023.4) Requirement already satisfied: six in /usr/local/lib/python3.10/dist-packages (from patsy>=0.5.4->statsmodels) (1.16.0)
import numpy as np
from sklearn.utils import shuffle
import scipy.stats as ss
import scipy.sparse as sparse
from itertools import *
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import statsmodels.stats.multitest as smm
def generate(mu1, sigma1, n1, mu2, sigma2, n2): # функция генерации смеси двух нормальных распределений
sample1 = np.random.normal(mu1, sigma1, n1)
sample2 = np.random.normal(mu2, sigma2, n2)
X = np.concatenate([sample1, sample2])
labels = np.concatenate([np.zeros(n1, dtype=int), np.ones(n2, dtype=int)])
return shuffle(X, labels, random_state=666)
class Model:
def __init__(self, X): # запоминаем данные
self.X = X
self.N = len(self.X)
def fit_predict(self, max_iter=15, seed=42):
#np.random.seed(seed)
# разбиваем множество значений на два равных промежутка и из каждого выбираем случайное значение матожидания
self.mu1, self.mu2 = np.random.choice(sorted(self.X)[0:self.N//2]), np.random.choice(sorted(self.X)[self.N//2+1:])
# задаём начальные стандартные отклонения
self.sigma1, self.sigma2 = 1, 1
# задаём долю значений из класса
self.q1 = np.random.random()
self.q2 = 1 - self.q1
def _estimate_params(X, y_prob): # оценка параметров распределения по известной разметке (M-step)
q1_ = np.mean(y_prob)
q2_ = 1 - q1_
mu1_ = np.sum(X * y_prob) / np.sum(y_prob)
sigma1_ = np.sum((X-mu1_)**2 * y_prob) / np.sum(y_prob)
mu2_ = np.sum(X * (1-y_prob)) / np.sum(1-y_prob)
sigma2_ = np.sum((X-mu2_)**2 * (1-y_prob)) / np.sum(1-y_prob)
return q1_, q2_, mu1_, sigma1_, mu2_, sigma2_
self.y_pred_old = None
for i in range(max_iter): # итерируемся до сходимости, но не более max_iter раз
# получение новой разметки по заданным параметрам (E-step)
p1 = self.q1 * ss.norm.pdf(self.X, self.mu1, self.sigma1)
p2 = self.q2 * ss.norm.pdf(self.X, self.mu2, self.sigma2)
self.y_pred = np.array(p1 - p2 < 0, dtype=int)
self.y_prob = p1 / (p1 + p2)
# оценка параметров распределения по известной разметке (M-step)
self.q1, self.q2, self.mu1, self.sigma1, self.mu2, self.sigma2 = _estimate_params(self.X, self.y_prob)
# остановка при сходимости (разметка не изменилась после очередной итерации)
if (self.y_pred == self.y_pred_old).all():
break
else:
self.y_pred_old = np.copy(self.y_pred)
# финальная оценка параметров (гарантирует наличие по крайней мере одной итерации алгоритма)
self.q1, self.q2, self.mu1, self.sigma1, self.mu2, self.sigma2 = _estimate_params(self.X, self.y_prob)
p1 = self.q1 * ss.norm.pdf(self.X, self.mu1, self.sigma1)
p2 = self.q2 * ss.norm.pdf(self.X, self.mu2, self.sigma2)
self.y_pred = np.array(p1 - p2 < 0, dtype=int)
self.y_prob = p1 / (p1 + p2)
self.n1, self.n2 = np.sum(1-self.y_pred), np.sum(self.y_pred)
return self.y_pred
def get_params(self):
return self.mu1, self.sigma1, self.n1, self.mu2, self.sigma2, self.n2
def get_probs(self):
return self.y_prob
def log_liklihood(self):
return np.sum(np.log(self.q1 * ss.norm.pdf(self.X, self.mu1, self.sigma1) + self.q2 * ss.norm.pdf(self.X, self.mu2, self.sigma2)))
def get_treshhold(self):
a = self.sigma2**2-self.sigma1**2
b = 2*self.mu2*self.sigma1**2 - 2*self.mu1*self.sigma2**2
c = self.mu1**2 * self.sigma2**2 - self.mu2**2 * self.sigma1**2 - 2 * self.sigma1**2 * self.sigma2**2 * np.log( (self.q1*self.sigma2) / (self.q2*self.sigma1) )
D = b**2 - 4 * a * c
return (-b + np.sqrt(D)) / (2*a)
def estimate_qual(self, y_true): # оценка качества
eps = 1e-6
TP = np.sum(self.y_pred * y_true)
FN = np.sum(y_true) - TP
FP = np.sum(self.y_pred) - TP
TN = len(y_true) - TP - FN - FP
SEN = TP / (TP + FN + eps)
SPC = TN / (FP + TN + eps)
PPV = TP / (TP + FP + eps)
FPR = FP / (FP + TN + eps)
F1 = 2 * PPV * SEN / (PPV + SEN + eps)
ACC = (TP + TN) / (TP + FN + FP + TN + eps)
return {"sensitivity" : SEN,
"specifity" : SPC,
"precision" : PPV,
"F1-score" : F1,
"accuracy" : ACC}
np.random.seed(666)
iters = [
(0, 1, 10, 1, 1, 5),
(0, 1, 100, 1, 1, 50),
(0, 1, 1000, 1, 1, 500)
]
for iter in iters:
params = pd.DataFrame({
"mu1" : [],
"sigma1" : [],
"n1" : [],
"mu2" : [],
"sigma2" : [],
"n2" : []})
params.loc["real"] = iter
np.random.seed(42)
X, y_true = generate(*iter)
model = Model(X)
y_pred = model.fit_predict()
colours = np.array(["orange"] * len(y_pred))
colours[y_true == 0] = "blue"
colours[y_true == 1] = "orange"
params.loc["estimated"] = model.get_params()
y_probs = model.get_probs()
log_liklihood = model.log_liklihood()
quality = model.estimate_qual(y_true)
description = f'''
_______________Model description_______________
Gaussian Mixture Models based on EM-algorythm
_______________Model parameters_______________
{params}
logLiklihood = {log_liklihood}
________________Model quality________________
{pd.Series(quality)}
'''
# пара костылей, чтобы графики выглядели так, как хочется
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(nrows=1, ncols=2, figsize = (12,3), tight_layout = True)
ax1.axis('off')
ax1.text(0, 0.5, description, ha="left", va="center", fontfamily="monospace")
ax2.scatter([], [], c=colours[y_true == 0][0], s=3, label=f"x from class N({params['mu1'].loc['real']:.02f}, {params['sigma1'].loc['real']:.02f})")
ax2.scatter([], [], c=colours[y_true == 1][1], s=3, label=f"x from class N({params['mu2'].loc['real']:.02f}, {params['sigma2'].loc['real']:.02f})")
ax2.vlines(model.get_treshhold(), 0, 1, linestyle="dashed", colors="black", alpha=0.5, label="Treshhold")
ax2.scatter(X, y_probs, c=colours, s=3)
plt.ylabel(f"Probability of class N({params['mu1'].loc['estimated']:.02f}, {params['sigma1'].loc['estimated']:.02f})")
ax2.legend()
plt.show()
Хочется сразу отметить, что в процессе реализации EM-алгоритма выяснилось, что он очень чувствителен к начальным предположениям и легко сваливается в локальный минимум. В частности, если выбирать оба начальных матожидания из всего диапазона X или оценивать их по случайной разметке, то в конце алгоритма все элементы оказываются в одном классе. Поэтому пришлось схитрить и выбирать начальные матожидания, разбив значения X на два равных промежутка. Тем не менее смесь всё равно не очень хорошо разделяется. В случае маленькой выборки данных недостаточно, чтобы успешно оценить параметры, в случае большой выборки исходные распределения перекрываются сильно, поэтому разбиение на классы элементов, которые находятся между математическими ожиданиями происходит почти случайно. Также отмечу, что распределение данной смеси очень похоже на сумму нормальных распределений (хотя, естественно им не является), что также может объяснять, почему EM-алгоритм плохо разделяет смесь и склонен относить все элементы к одному распределению.
X = np.linspace(-4, 4, 101)
Y1 = 2/3 * ss.norm.pdf(X, 0, 1) + 1/3 * ss.norm.pdf(X, 1, 1)
Y2 = ss.norm.pdf(X, 2/3 * 0 + 1/3 * 1, np.sqrt(2/3 * 1 + 1/3 * 1))
plt.plot(X, Y1, label="Mixture of N(0, 1) and N(1, 1)")
plt.plot(X, Y2, label="N($\\frac{1}{3}$, 1) = N(0, 1) + N(1, 1)")
plt.title("Density of different distributions")
plt.legend(loc='center left', bbox_to_anchor=(1, 0.5))
<matplotlib.legend.Legend at 0x7b8991839f60>
class MarkovChain:
def __init__(self, alphabet, order):
self.alphabet = np.array(list(alphabet))
self.A = len(self.alphabet)
self.order = order+1
self._generate_Ps()
def _generate_Ps(self): # функция, создающая матрицы перехода
self.Ps = list()
for i in range(self.order):
P = np.random.random(tuple([self.A] * (i+1)))
P /= np.sum(P, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
self.Ps.append(P)
def generate_seqs(self, length, N):
seqs = list()
for _ in range(N):
i = 0
seq = ''
for s in range(length):
pre_string = seq[-i:]
pre = []
for _ in pre_string:
pre.append(np.where(self.alphabet == _)[0][0])
seq += np.random.choice(self.alphabet, p=self.Ps[i][tuple(pre)])
if i < self.order-1:
i += 1
seqs.append(seq)
return seqs
def fit(self, seqs, eps=1e-6, erg=False):
self.N = len(seqs)
self.length = min([len(seq) for seq in seqs])
self.Kmers = [None for _ in range(self.order)]
i = self.order-1
while i > -1: #+ erg*(self.order-2):
imers = np.ones(tuple([self.A] * (i+1))) * eps / (self.A ** (i+1))
for seq in seqs:
if erg:
js = self.length-i-1
else:
js = 1
for j in range(js):
i_mer_string = seq[j:j+i+1]
i_mer = []
for _ in i_mer_string:
i_mer.append(np.where(self.alphabet == _)[0][0])
imers[tuple(i_mer)] += 1
self.Kmers[i] = imers
i -= 1
for i in range(self.order-1, -1, -1):
if erg:
if i == self.order-1 and i != 0:
self.Ps[i] = self.Kmers[i] / self.Kmers[i-1].reshape(tuple([self.A] * (i) + [1]))
else:
if i != 0:
self.Ps[i] = self.Kmers[i] / self.Kmers[i-1].reshape(tuple([self.A] * (i) + [1]))
else:
self.Ps[i] = self.Kmers[i] / (self.N * self.length)
'''
жалкие потуги постичь эргодичность
rows = np.array([[j for k in range(self.A)] for j in range(self.A ** (i+1))]).ravel()
cols = np.array([[[l*(self.A)**(i)+j for l in range(self.A)] for k in range(self.A)] for j in range(self.A ** i)]).ravel()
data = self.Ps[i+1].ravel()
matrix = sparse.coo_matrix((data, (rows, cols)))
eigenvalues, eigenvectors = sparse.linalg.eigs(matrix)
P = eigenvectors[eigenvalues == 1]
P /= np.sum(P, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
self.Ps[i] = P
'''
else:
if i != 0:
self.Ps[i] = self.Kmers[i] / self.Kmers[i-1].reshape(tuple([self.A] * (i) + [1]))
else:
self.Ps[i] = self.Kmers[i] / self.N
if erg:
self.k = self.A ** self.order - self.A ** (self.order-1)
else:
self.k = self.A ** self.order - 1
self._log_L(seqs)
return self.Ps
def BIC(self):
return self.k * np.log(self.N) - self.log_L
def AIC(self):
return self.k * 2 - self.log_L
def _log_L(self, seqs):
self.log_Ps = [np.log(_) for _ in self.Ps]
self.log_L = 0
for seq in seqs:
i = 0
for j in range(self.length):
i_mer_string = seq[j-i:j+1]
i_mer = []
for _ in i_mer_string:
i_mer.append(np.where(self.alphabet == _)[0][0])
self.log_L += self.log_Ps[i][tuple(i_mer)]
if i < self.order-1:
i += 1
def print_Ps(Ps):
for i in range(len(Ps)):
print(f"""
P{i}=
{Ps[i]}""")
alphabet = "ab"
order = 1
N = 1000
length = 3000
generation = MarkovChain(alphabet, order)
real_Ps = generation.Ps
seqs = generation.generate_seqs(length, N)
estimation = MarkovChain(alphabet, order)
estimated_Ps = estimation.fit(seqs, erg=False)
print("Parameters of model")
print("Real transition matrices")
print_Ps(real_Ps)
print("Estimated transition matrices")
print_Ps(estimated_Ps)
Parameters of model Real transition matrices P0= [0.86605874 0.13394126] P1= [[0.14906449 0.85093551] [0.52586667 0.47413333]] Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.879 0.121] P1= [[0.16040956 0.83959044] [0.56198347 0.43801653]]
print("Real transition matrices of 1-order Markov chain model")
print_Ps(real_Ps)
AICs, BICs = [], []
orders = [_ for _ in range(4)]
for order in orders:
estimation = MarkovChain(alphabet, order)
estimated_Ps = estimation.fit(seqs, erg=False)
AIC = estimation.AIC()
BIC = estimation.BIC()
AICs.append(AIC)
BICs.append(BIC)
print(f"""
{order}-order Markov chain model
Estimated transition matrices""")
print_Ps(estimated_Ps)
print(f"""
AIC = {AIC}\tBIC = {BIC}
""")
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(nrows=1, ncols=2, figsize = (12,3), tight_layout = True)
ax1.plot(orders, AICs)
ax1.title.set_text("AIC")
ax1.set_xlabel("Order of model")
ax2.plot(orders, BICs)
ax2.title.set_text("BIC")
ax2.set_xlabel("Order of model")
Real transition matrices of 1-order Markov chain model P0= [0.86605874 0.13394126] P1= [[0.14906449 0.85093551] [0.52586667 0.47413333]] 0-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.879 0.121] AIC = 4062922.6265882384 BIC = 4062927.5343435174 1-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.879 0.121] P1= [[0.16040956 0.83959044] [0.56198347 0.43801653]] AIC = 1770470.1698345244 BIC = 1770484.8931003613 2-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.879 0.121] P1= [[0.16040956 0.83959044] [0.56198347 0.43801653]] P2= [[[0.15602837 0.84397163] [0.51897019 0.48102981]] [[0.14705882 0.85294118] [0.45283019 0.54716981]]] AIC = 1774592.5031855742 BIC = 1774626.857472527 3-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.879 0.121] P1= [[0.16040956 0.83959044] [0.56198347 0.43801653]] P2= [[[0.15602837 0.84397163] [0.51897019 0.48102981]] [[0.14705882 0.85294118] [0.45283019 0.54716981]]] P3= [[[[9.09090932e-02 9.09090907e-01] [4.87394958e-01 5.12605042e-01]] [[1.64490862e-01 8.35509138e-01] [5.40845070e-01 4.59154930e-01]]] [[[6.24999992e-09 9.99999994e-01] [5.17241379e-01 4.82758621e-01]] [[1.66666668e-01 8.33333332e-01] [5.17241379e-01 4.82758621e-01]]]] AIC = 2116049.4443266215 BIC = 2116123.060655806
Text(0.5, 0, 'Order of model')
Параметры, полученные в результате оценки близки к реальным параметрам, причём наилучшее качество у модели первого порядка (т.е. того же порядка, что был у генерации). При этом стоит отметить, что модель второго порядка описывает данные почти также хорошо. При этом для данной модели выполняется
$P_2[i, j, k] = P(S_n = \alpha_k | S_{n-1} = \alpha_j, S_{n-2} = \alpha_i) \approx P_1[j, k] = P(S_n = \alpha_k | S_{n-1} = \alpha_j)$
Это указывает на то, что данная модель почти не учитывает влияние $(n-2)$-ой буквы. При этом бернуллиевская модель (цепь Маркова нулевого порядка) описывет данные крайне плохо, в то время как модель третьего порядка является слишком сложной и содержит избыточные параметры, поэтому для неё критерии $AIC$ и $BIC$ имеют большие значения.
!wget -O B_subtilis.fasta.gz https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/all/GCA/000/009/045/GCA_000009045.1_ASM904v1/GCA_000009045.1_ASM904v1_genomic.fna.gz
!gunzip -d B_subtilis.fasta.gz
--2024-03-10 20:23:47-- https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genomes/all/GCA/000/009/045/GCA_000009045.1_ASM904v1/GCA_000009045.1_ASM904v1_genomic.fna.gz Resolving ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov (ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)... 130.14.250.11, 130.14.250.12, 2607:f220:41e:250::10, ... Connecting to ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov (ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)|130.14.250.11|:443... connected. HTTP request sent, awaiting response... 200 OK Length: 1248394 (1.2M) [application/x-gzip] Saving to: ‘B_subtilis.fasta.gz’ B_subtilis.fasta.gz 100%[===================>] 1.19M --.-KB/s in 0.09s 2024-03-10 20:23:47 (12.9 MB/s) - ‘B_subtilis.fasta.gz’ saved [1248394/1248394]
with open("B_subtilis.fasta") as inp:
header = inp.readline().strip()
name = header.split()[0][1:]
genome = []
for line in inp:
line = line.strip()
genome.append(line)
genome = "".join(genome).upper() # на всякий случай
i, j, G = 0, 1000, len(genome)
B_seqs = []
while j < G:
seq = genome[i:j]
B_seqs.append(seq)
i += 1000
j += 1000
AICs, BICs = [], []
orders = [_ for _ in range(6)]
alphabet = "ATGC"
full_est_Ps = []
for order in orders:
estimation = MarkovChain(alphabet, order)
estimated_Ps = estimation.fit(B_seqs, erg=False)
full_est_Ps.append(estimated_Ps)
AIC = estimation.AIC()
BIC = estimation.BIC()
AICs.append(AIC)
BICs.append(BIC)
print(f"""
{order}-order Markov chain model
Estimated transition matrices""")
if order < max(orders):
print("Same as for the highest-order model")
else:
print_Ps(estimated_Ps)
print(f"""
AIC = {AIC}\tBIC = {BIC}
""")
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(nrows=1, ncols=2, figsize = (12,3), tight_layout = True)
ax1.plot(orders, AICs)
ax1.title.set_text("AIC")
ax1.set_xlabel("Order of model")
ax2.plot(orders, BICs)
ax2.title.set_text("BIC")
ax2.set_xlabel("Order of model")
0-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices Same as for the highest-order model AIC = 5810167.532098773 BIC = 5810186.571313384 1-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices Same as for the highest-order model AIC = 5741972.615781027 BIC = 5742067.811854083 2-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices Same as for the highest-order model AIC = 5719849.615952403 BIC = 5720249.439459241 3-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices Same as for the highest-order model AIC = 5782479.94242272 BIC = 5784098.275664681 4-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices Same as for the highest-order model AIC = 9147755.11509343 BIC = 9154247.487275887 5-order Markov chain model Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.28232503 0.28493476 0.20474496 0.22799526] P1= [[0.35882353 0.28235294 0.18991597 0.16890756] [0.15237302 0.36636137 0.24229808 0.23896753] [0.28852839 0.21552723 0.21784473 0.27809965] [0.31009365 0.26430801 0.21540062 0.21019771]] P2= [[[0.38173302 0.28337237 0.16393443 0.17096019] [0.2202381 0.32142857 0.24404762 0.21428571] [0.33185841 0.21238938 0.19911504 0.25663717] [0.32338308 0.23383085 0.22885572 0.21393035]] [[0.30601093 0.42076503 0.13114754 0.1420765 ] [0.15909091 0.41363636 0.19090909 0.23636364] [0.38831615 0.20618557 0.19243986 0.21305842] [0.32055749 0.28571429 0.17421603 0.2195122 ]] [[0.36144578 0.28915663 0.1686747 0.18072289] [0.26344086 0.3172043 0.19354839 0.22580645] [0.33510638 0.21276596 0.19148936 0.2606383 ] [0.2875 0.30416667 0.19166667 0.21666667]] [[0.31543624 0.2885906 0.24832215 0.14765101] [0.13779528 0.33464567 0.27559055 0.2519685 ] [0.24637681 0.26570048 0.22222222 0.26570048] [0.24752475 0.23762376 0.32673267 0.18811881]]] P3= [[[[0.42944785 0.21472393 0.1595092 0.19631902] [0.27272727 0.23140496 0.28099174 0.21487603] [0.4 0.08571429 0.31428571 0.2 ] [0.47945205 0.1369863 0.24657534 0.1369863 ]] [[0.40540541 0.33783784 0.08108108 0.17567568] [0.19444444 0.31481481 0.26851852 0.22222222] [0.30487805 0.2804878 0.17073171 0.24390244] [0.375 0.18055556 0.23611111 0.20833333]] [[0.34666667 0.24 0.17333333 0.24 ] [0.10416667 0.29166667 0.375 0.22916667] [0.33333333 0.24444444 0.22222222 0.2 ] [0.34482759 0.24137931 0.24137931 0.17241379]] [[0.44615385 0.2 0.23076923 0.12307692] [0.08510638 0.44680851 0.36170213 0.10638298] [0.26086957 0.2173913 0.36956522 0.15217391] [0.30232558 0.20930233 0.30232558 0.18604651]]] [[[0.44642857 0.28571429 0.10714286 0.16071429] [0.2987013 0.33766234 0.20779221 0.15584416] [0.41666667 0.20833333 0.125 0.25 ] [0.34615385 0.15384615 0.23076923 0.26923077]] [[0.2 0.45714286 0.15714286 0.18571429] [0.21428571 0.41208791 0.13736264 0.23626374] [0.38095238 0.22619048 0.20238095 0.19047619] [0.34615385 0.24038462 0.22115385 0.19230769]] [[0.30973451 0.30088496 0.15929204 0.2300885 ] [0.25 0.28333333 0.21666667 0.25 ] [0.41071429 0.19642857 0.17857143 0.21428571] [0.24193548 0.33870968 0.19354839 0.22580645]] [[0.32608696 0.42391304 0.16304348 0.08695652] [0.13414634 0.34146341 0.2804878 0.24390244] [0.26 0.34 0.2 0.2 ] [0.31746032 0.22222222 0.26984127 0.19047619]]] [[[0.35555556 0.16666667 0.3 0.17777778] [0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 ] [0.33333333 0.16666667 0.21428571 0.28571429] [0.31111111 0.22222222 0.24444444 0.22222222]] [[0.28571429 0.32653061 0.24489796 0.14285714] [0.20338983 0.3220339 0.20338983 0.27118644] [0.41666667 0.22222222 0.25 0.11111111] [0.30952381 0.33333333 0.19047619 0.16666667]] [[0.42857143 0.36507937 0.06349206 0.14285714] [0.125 0.35 0.375 0.15 ] [0.25 0.30555556 0.19444444 0.25 ] [0.24489796 0.30612245 0.26530612 0.18367347]] [[0.28985507 0.24637681 0.26086957 0.20289855] [0.02739726 0.34246575 0.46575342 0.16438356] [0.23913043 0.17391304 0.36956522 0.2173913 ] [0.23076923 0.32692308 0.28846154 0.15384615]]] [[[0.34042553 0.22340426 0.26595745 0.17021277] [0.24418605 0.26744186 0.12790698 0.36046512] [0.22972973 0.17567568 0.17567568 0.41891892] [0.31818182 0.25 0.15909091 0.27272727]] [[0.34285714 0.31428571 0.14285714 0.2 ] [0.15294118 0.31764706 0.2 0.32941176] [0.38571429 0.28571429 0.1 0.22857143] [0.296875 0.265625 0.171875 0.265625 ]] [[0.21568627 0.45098039 0.19607843 0.1372549 ] [0.2 0.45454545 0.16363636 0.18181818] [0.26086957 0.32608696 0.2173913 0.19565217] [0.18181818 0.45454545 0.16363636 0.2 ]] [[0.36 0.26 0.22 0.16 ] [0.10416667 0.25 0.35416667 0.29166667] [0.25757576 0.1969697 0.1969697 0.34848485] [0.18421053 0.23684211 0.26315789 0.31578947]]]] P4= [[[[[4.14285714e-01 1.85714286e-01 2.57142857e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.85714286e-01 3.14285714e-01] [3.46153846e-01 7.69230769e-02 2.30769231e-01 3.46153846e-01] [2.81250000e-01 6.25000000e-02 4.37500000e-01 2.18750000e-01]] [[4.84848485e-01 2.72727273e-01 1.21212121e-01 1.21212121e-01] [2.14285714e-01 3.21428571e-01 2.14285714e-01 2.50000000e-01] [5.88235294e-01 1.47058824e-01 1.17647059e-01 1.47058824e-01] [1.53846154e-01 1.92307692e-01 3.07692308e-01 3.46153846e-01]] [[3.92857143e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.78571429e-01 1.42857143e-01] [1.62760417e-10 1.66666667e-01 8.33333333e-01 1.62760417e-10] [3.18181818e-01 1.81818182e-01 3.18181818e-01 1.81818182e-01] [5.00000000e-01 7.14285715e-02 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01]] [[2.85714286e-01 2.28571429e-01 2.85714286e-01 2.00000000e-01] [1.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01] [3.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01 3.88888889e-01 1.11111111e-01] [1.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11 6.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01]]] [[[5.33333333e-01 2.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01 6.66666667e-02] [1.60000000e-01 4.40000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [6.66666666e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.62760417e-10 1.66666667e-01] [2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01 3.07692308e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 5.23809524e-01 9.52380953e-02 4.76190477e-02] [8.82352941e-02 3.82352941e-01 2.35294118e-01 2.94117647e-01] [5.17241379e-01 1.03448276e-01 1.72413793e-01 2.06896552e-01] [4.16666667e-01 1.25000000e-01 4.16666667e-02 4.16666667e-01]] [[4.40000000e-01 2.80000000e-01 1.20000000e-01 1.60000000e-01] [8.69565218e-02 3.47826087e-01 2.17391304e-01 3.47826087e-01] [5.71428571e-01 7.14285715e-02 2.14285714e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.50000000e-01 3.50000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01 1.11111111e-01] [2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01 3.84615385e-01 1.53846154e-01] [5.29411765e-01 1.17647059e-01 2.94117647e-01 5.88235295e-02] [1.33333333e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01]]] [[[3.84615385e-01 1.92307692e-01 2.30769231e-01 1.92307692e-01] [2.77777778e-01 1.66666667e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01] [7.69230770e-02 7.51201923e-11 6.15384615e-01 3.07692308e-01] [4.44444444e-01 1.11111111e-01 3.88888889e-01 5.55555556e-02]] [[2.00000000e-01 6.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10 2.00000000e-01] [6.97544643e-11 6.42857143e-01 2.14285714e-01 1.42857143e-01] [4.44444444e-01 3.33333333e-01 5.42534722e-11 2.22222222e-01] [5.45454545e-01 2.72727273e-01 9.09090910e-02 9.09090910e-02]] [[3.33333333e-01 2.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-02] [9.09090910e-02 3.63636364e-01 4.54545454e-01 9.09090910e-02] [5.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 3.50000000e-01 1.00000000e-01] [7.14285715e-02 4.28571429e-01 3.57142857e-01 1.42857143e-01] [1.42857143e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.14285714e-01 5.00000000e-01] [1.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 6.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]]] [[[2.75862069e-01 3.10344828e-01 2.41379310e-01 1.72413793e-01] [3.07692308e-01 3.07692308e-01 1.53846154e-01 2.30769231e-01] [2.66666667e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.00000000e-01] [1.25000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 3.75000000e-01]] [[2.44140625e-10 2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [9.52380953e-02 3.33333333e-01 2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01] [2.35294118e-01 2.94117647e-01 5.74448529e-11 4.70588235e-01] [8.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10 1.95312500e-10]] [[5.83333333e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11] [2.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01] [4.11764706e-01 1.17647059e-01 1.76470588e-01 2.94117647e-01] [1.42857143e-01 1.42857143e-01 1.39508928e-10 7.14285714e-01]] [[3.07692308e-01 4.61538461e-01 1.53846154e-01 7.69230770e-02] [1.11111111e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01] [7.69230770e-02 3.84615385e-01 3.07692308e-01 2.30769231e-01] [3.75000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01]]]] [[[[4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-02 3.60000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [6.25000000e-02 4.37500000e-01 3.12500000e-01 1.87500000e-01] [6.66666666e-01 1.62760417e-10 1.62760417e-10 3.33333333e-01] [1.11111111e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01]] [[1.30434783e-01 4.78260870e-01 1.73913043e-01 2.17391304e-01] [1.15384615e-01 4.23076923e-01 1.92307692e-01 2.69230769e-01] [3.75000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.87500000e-01 1.87500000e-01] [2.50000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[6.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11 9.76562500e-11] [4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10] [3.25520833e-10 3.25520833e-10 6.66666666e-01 3.33333333e-01] [1.62760417e-10 1.66666667e-01 6.66666666e-01 1.66666667e-01]] [[4.44444444e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.08506944e-10] [2.44140625e-10 5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.66666667e-01] [2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01]]] [[[3.57142857e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.14285714e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [9.09090910e-02 2.72727273e-01 1.81818182e-01 4.54545454e-01] [3.84615385e-01 3.07692308e-01 1.53846154e-01 1.53846154e-01]] [[3.07692308e-01 4.61538462e-01 7.69230769e-02 1.53846154e-01] [1.86666667e-01 4.13333333e-01 1.20000000e-01 2.80000000e-01] [2.80000000e-01 3.20000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [3.72093023e-01 3.02325581e-01 1.62790698e-01 1.62790698e-01]] [[4.06250000e-01 3.43750000e-01 1.25000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [2.10526316e-01 4.21052632e-01 5.26315790e-02 3.15789474e-01] [3.52941176e-01 5.88235295e-02 1.76470588e-01 4.11764706e-01] [2.50000000e-01 3.12500000e-01 1.87500000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.77777778e-01 1.66666667e-01] [2.00000000e-01 3.20000000e-01 2.80000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [1.30434783e-01 3.47826087e-01 3.04347826e-01 2.17391304e-01] [3.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01]]] [[[2.85714286e-01 3.71428571e-01 1.71428571e-01 1.71428571e-01] [2.35294118e-01 3.23529412e-01 1.47058824e-01 2.94117647e-01] [1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 2.77777778e-01 3.88888889e-01] [2.30769231e-01 1.92307692e-01 3.84615385e-01 1.92307692e-01]] [[5.33333333e-01 2.66666667e-01 1.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-02] [5.88235295e-02 7.05882353e-01 1.76470588e-01 5.88235295e-02] [3.84615385e-01 7.51201923e-11 1.53846154e-01 4.61538461e-01] [4.00000000e-01 2.66666667e-01 6.66666667e-02 2.66666667e-01]] [[3.04347826e-01 3.04347826e-01 8.69565218e-02 3.04347826e-01] [3.63636364e-01 3.63636364e-01 2.72727273e-01 8.87784091e-11] [3.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11] [3.33333333e-01 8.33333334e-02 2.50000000e-01 3.33333333e-01]] [[4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.33333333e-01 2.66666667e-01] [9.52380953e-02 1.90476190e-01 5.23809524e-01 1.90476190e-01] [3.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01 4.16666667e-01 8.33333334e-02] [4.28571429e-01 7.14285715e-02 4.28571429e-01 7.14285715e-02]]] [[[3.33333333e-01 2.33333333e-01 2.33333333e-01 2.00000000e-01] [1.79487179e-01 3.58974359e-01 1.53846154e-01 3.07692308e-01] [4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 6.51041666e-11 4.00000000e-01] [3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01]] [[5.45454545e-01 2.72727273e-01 8.87784091e-11 1.81818182e-01] [7.14285715e-02 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 4.28571429e-01] [2.60869565e-01 2.60869565e-01 1.73913043e-01 3.04347826e-01] [2.50000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[7.69230770e-02 5.38461538e-01 3.07692308e-01 7.69230770e-02] [1.76470588e-01 4.70588235e-01 2.35294118e-01 1.17647059e-01] [3.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01] [2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01]] [[4.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11] [2.14285714e-01 5.00000000e-01 2.85714286e-01 6.97544643e-11] [1.17647059e-01 1.76470588e-01 2.35294118e-01 4.70588235e-01] [1.66666667e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 3.33333333e-01]]]] [[[[4.06250000e-01 2.18750000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [1.33333333e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.00000000e-01] [2.96296296e-01 7.40740741e-02 2.59259259e-01 3.70370370e-01] [3.12500000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 3.12500000e-01]] [[3.88888889e-01 3.88888889e-01 5.42534722e-11 2.22222222e-01] [5.42534722e-11 6.11111111e-01 3.33333333e-01 5.55555556e-02] [5.55555555e-01 5.55555556e-02 1.66666667e-01 2.22222222e-01] [2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01]] [[4.28571429e-01 2.85714286e-01 2.14285714e-01 7.14285715e-02] [1.39508928e-10 4.28571428e-01 4.28571428e-01 1.42857143e-01] [3.33333333e-01 4.44444444e-01 1.11111111e-01 1.11111111e-01] [5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 8.13802083e-11 2.50000000e-01]] [[2.85714286e-01 5.00000000e-01 7.14285715e-02 1.42857143e-01] [9.76562500e-11 5.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01] [3.63636364e-01 9.09090910e-02 3.63636364e-01 1.81818182e-01] [4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01]]] [[[5.00000000e-01 7.14285715e-02 2.14285714e-01 2.14285714e-01] [6.25000000e-02 3.75000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.87500000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 8.33333334e-02 2.50000000e-01] [2.85714286e-01 4.28571428e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.39508928e-10]] [[6.66666667e-01 8.33333334e-02 1.66666667e-01 8.33333334e-02] [1.05263158e-01 3.15789474e-01 2.63157895e-01 3.15789474e-01] [3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.50000000e-01 8.33333334e-02] [3.75000000e-01 4.37500000e-01 6.25000000e-02 1.25000000e-01]] [[4.00000000e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.33333333e-01] [2.50000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01 1.08506944e-10 5.55555555e-01] [5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10]] [[2.30769231e-01 1.53846154e-01 1.53846154e-01 4.61538461e-01] [1.42857143e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.14285714e-01] [3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [1.42857143e-01 4.28571428e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.85714286e-01]]] [[[2.59259259e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.96296296e-01 1.11111111e-01] [1.73913043e-01 2.60869565e-01 4.34782609e-01 1.30434783e-01] [5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.50000000e-01] [2.22222222e-01 1.11111111e-01 4.44444444e-01 2.22222222e-01]] [[2.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10 4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01] [1.42857143e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.14285714e-01] [4.66666667e-01 1.33333333e-01 1.33333333e-01 2.66666667e-01] [1.66666667e-01 6.66666666e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.62760417e-10]] [[3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01 2.22222222e-01] [2.72727273e-01 1.81818182e-01 4.54545454e-01 9.09090910e-02] [2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 2.85714286e-01] [3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01 1.11111111e-01]] [[4.16666667e-01 2.50000000e-01 8.33333334e-02 2.50000000e-01] [6.51041666e-11 2.00000000e-01 5.33333333e-01 2.66666667e-01] [4.61538461e-01 1.53846154e-01 2.30769231e-01 1.53846154e-01] [4.44444444e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.08506944e-10]]] [[[5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-02] [1.76470588e-01 2.94117647e-01 4.11764706e-01 1.17647059e-01] [2.77777778e-01 5.55555556e-02 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01] [3.57142857e-01 2.14285714e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01]] [[4.88281249e-10 4.88281249e-10 4.88281249e-10 9.99999999e-01] [1.20000000e-01 3.20000000e-01 3.20000000e-01 2.40000000e-01] [4.41176471e-01 2.64705882e-01 8.82352941e-02 2.05882353e-01] [3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01]] [[2.72727273e-01 2.72727273e-01 9.09090910e-02 3.63636364e-01] [1.22070312e-10 8.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 1.22070312e-10] [4.11764706e-01 5.74448529e-11 1.76470588e-01 4.11764706e-01] [1.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11 5.00000000e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 4.16666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 8.33333334e-02] [1.76470588e-01 3.52941176e-01 1.76470588e-01 2.94117647e-01] [2.66666667e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.66666667e-01 2.00000000e-01] [3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10]]]] [[[[3.43750000e-01 1.56250000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [2.38095238e-01 2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.90476190e-01] [8.00000000e-02 4.00000000e-02 2.40000000e-01 6.40000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.87500000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.25000000e-02]] [[3.33333333e-01 4.76190476e-01 1.42857143e-01 4.76190477e-02] [1.30434783e-01 4.78260870e-01 1.73913043e-01 2.17391304e-01] [4.54545454e-01 2.72727273e-01 9.09090910e-02 1.81818182e-01] [3.22580645e-01 2.90322581e-01 2.25806452e-01 1.61290323e-01]] [[4.70588235e-01 4.11764706e-01 5.88235295e-02 5.88235295e-02] [3.07692308e-01 3.07692308e-01 3.07692308e-01 7.69230770e-02] [1.53846154e-01 3.07692308e-01 7.69230770e-02 4.61538461e-01] [2.90322581e-01 3.54838710e-01 1.61290323e-01 1.93548387e-01]] [[1.42857143e-01 2.14285714e-01 4.28571429e-01 2.14285714e-01] [1.81818182e-01 4.54545454e-01 2.72727273e-01 9.09090910e-02] [4.28571428e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01]]] [[[5.83333333e-01 8.33333334e-02 8.33333334e-02 2.50000000e-01] [9.09090910e-02 7.27272727e-01 1.81818182e-01 8.87784091e-11] [1.95312500e-10 2.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10 8.00000000e-01] [5.71428571e-01 1.39508928e-10 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01]] [[3.07692308e-01 2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01] [1.11111111e-01 4.44444444e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01] [4.11764706e-01 2.94117647e-01 1.76470588e-01 1.17647059e-01] [3.21428571e-01 3.92857143e-01 1.42857143e-01 1.42857143e-01]] [[4.07407407e-01 2.96296296e-01 1.48148148e-01 1.48148148e-01] [4.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.50000000e-01 1.50000000e-01] [4.28571428e-01 5.71428571e-01 1.39508928e-10 1.39508928e-10] [1.25000000e-01 4.37500000e-01 1.87500000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[4.73684210e-01 2.63157895e-01 1.57894737e-01 1.05263158e-01] [2.94117647e-01 4.11764706e-01 1.17647059e-01 1.76470588e-01] [2.72727273e-01 2.72727273e-01 2.72727273e-01 1.81818182e-01] [2.35294118e-01 3.52941176e-01 1.76470588e-01 2.35294118e-01]]] [[[3.63636364e-01 2.72727273e-01 9.09090910e-02 2.72727273e-01] [3.04347826e-01 2.17391304e-01 2.17391304e-01 2.60869565e-01] [4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01] [1.39508928e-10 1.42857143e-01 5.71428571e-01 2.85714286e-01]] [[4.54545454e-01 2.72727273e-01 1.81818182e-01 9.09090910e-02] [8.00000000e-02 5.60000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.60000000e-01] [2.22222222e-01 4.44444444e-01 1.08506944e-10 3.33333333e-01] [2.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11 5.00000000e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 4.16666667e-01 8.33333334e-02 2.50000000e-01] [4.00000000e-01 3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-02 2.00000000e-01] [7.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11 3.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11] [3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01]] [[3.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 9.76562500e-11] [3.90625000e-11 5.20000000e-01 3.20000000e-01 1.60000000e-01] [1.11111111e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01] [1.81818182e-01 4.54545454e-01 1.81818182e-01 1.81818182e-01]]] [[[1.11111111e-01 4.44444444e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01] [7.51201923e-11 1.53846154e-01 1.53846154e-01 6.92307692e-01] [2.72727273e-01 9.09090910e-02 1.81818182e-01 4.54545454e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.22070312e-10]] [[8.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10 2.00000000e-01 1.95312500e-10] [2.50000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 4.16666667e-01] [2.94117647e-01 1.17647059e-01 3.52941176e-01 2.35294118e-01] [2.14285714e-01 1.42857143e-01 3.57142857e-01 2.85714286e-01]] [[1.76470588e-01 5.29411765e-01 2.35294118e-01 5.88235295e-02] [7.69230770e-02 5.38461538e-01 7.51201923e-11 3.84615385e-01] [2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01 1.53846154e-01 3.84615385e-01] [2.60869565e-01 1.73913043e-01 3.47826087e-01 2.17391304e-01]] [[1.42857143e-01 5.71428571e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.39508928e-10] [1.08506944e-10 5.55555555e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01] [4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]]]]] P5= [[[[[[3.44827586e-01 2.06896552e-01 2.75862069e-01 1.72413793e-01] [3.84615385e-01 2.30769231e-01 2.30769231e-01 1.53846154e-01] [3.88888889e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.11111111e-01 3.33333333e-01] [4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]] [[2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01 4.28571429e-01 3.48772321e-11] [3.48772321e-11 1.42857143e-01 4.28571429e-01 4.28571429e-01] [3.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01] [4.54545455e-01 2.72727273e-01 2.72727273e-01 2.21946023e-11]] [[2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00] [3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01] [3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01]] [[2.71267361e-11 4.44444444e-01 4.44444444e-01 1.11111111e-01] [1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [3.57142857e-01 1.42857143e-01 3.57142857e-01 1.42857143e-01] [1.42857143e-01 4.28571429e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01]]] [[[4.37500000e-01 1.87500000e-01 1.87500000e-01 1.87500000e-01] [2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01] [5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11] [5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11]] [[1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01] [1.11111111e-01 4.44444444e-01 1.11111111e-01 3.33333333e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 4.06901042e-11 3.33333333e-01] [1.42857143e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 4.28571429e-01]] [[4.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.50000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [4.88281250e-11 6.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]] [[6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 7.50000000e-01] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01] [2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01 4.44444444e-01 1.11111111e-01]]] [[[5.45454545e-01 2.72727273e-01 1.81818182e-01 2.21946023e-11] [3.05175781e-11 2.50000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 3.75000000e-01] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01] [2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11]] [[2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01] [4.88281250e-11 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 6.00000000e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[5.71428571e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 3.48772321e-11] [5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11] [1.42857143e-01 3.48772321e-11 5.71428571e-01 2.85714286e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01]] [[2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10]]] [[[7.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.44140625e-11 1.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 3.05175781e-11 5.00000000e-01 3.05175781e-11] [6.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01 2.44140625e-11 3.00000000e-01] [5.71428571e-01 1.42857143e-01 3.48772321e-11 2.85714286e-01]] [[2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10] [6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10]] [[3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 4.06901042e-11] [8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11] [2.85714286e-01 4.28571429e-01 3.48772321e-11 2.85714286e-01] [1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10]] [[2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [3.33333333e-01 4.06901042e-11 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01] [3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11]]]] [[[[3.75000000e-01 1.87500000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.87500000e-01] [3.48772321e-11 2.85714286e-01 2.85714286e-01 4.28571429e-01] [2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 4.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10]] [[2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [9.09090909e-02 5.45454545e-01 1.81818182e-01 1.81818182e-01] [8.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 2.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11] [4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11]] [[1.00000000e+00 6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11] [2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10]] [[3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11] [6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]]] [[[1.42857143e-01 4.28571429e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.72727273e-01 4.54545455e-01 1.81818182e-01 9.09090909e-02] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [3.84615385e-01 3.84615385e-01 1.87800481e-11 2.30769231e-01] [6.25000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 1.25000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 2.44140625e-11 2.00000000e-01]] [[5.33333333e-01 4.00000000e-01 6.66666667e-02 1.62760417e-11] [3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01]] [[4.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 2.44140625e-11] [8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01] [2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [3.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01]]] [[[1.81818182e-01 5.45454545e-01 1.81818182e-01 9.09090909e-02] [2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 4.28571429e-01 1.42857143e-01] [3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10] [3.05175781e-11 6.25000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 2.00000000e-01] [3.75000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11] [1.00000000e+00 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10]] [[4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 6.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11] [1.42857143e-01 5.71428571e-01 1.42857143e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 7.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11] [2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01]]] [[[2.22222222e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01] [2.22222222e-01 4.44444444e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.71267361e-11] [1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 4.06901042e-11 5.00000000e-01] [6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11]] [[3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11] [2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01]] [[4.44444444e-01 2.22222222e-01 2.22222222e-01 1.11111111e-01] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00 1.22070312e-10] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01] [9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10]] [[5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 7.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11]]]] [[[[2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 3.00000000e-01 1.00000000e-01] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01] [2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01]] [[4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11] [7.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11] [8.33333333e-01 4.06901042e-11 1.66666667e-01 4.06901042e-11]] [[9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 7.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11]] [[1.25000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 3.75000000e-01 1.25000000e-01] [1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10] [1.42857143e-01 3.48772321e-11 2.85714286e-01 5.71428571e-01] [2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10]]] [[[2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 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4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01]] [[4.28571429e-01 2.85714286e-01 1.42857143e-01 1.42857143e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[6.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10] [1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10] [8.13802083e-11 1.00000000e+00 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11]]] [[[8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [1.53846154e-01 3.07692308e-01 3.07692308e-01 2.30769231e-01] [1.25000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 3.05175781e-11 6.25000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 7.50000000e-01]] [[9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [6.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01] [1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01]] [[1.00000000e+00 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10] [4.88281250e-11 6.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 4.00000000e-01] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10]]]] [[[[5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10] [1.25000000e-01 3.05175781e-11 5.00000000e-01 3.75000000e-01] [1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 4.06901042e-11 5.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [3.33333333e-01 1.11111111e-01 3.33333333e-01 2.22222222e-01]] [[6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [4.88281250e-11 4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10] [8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]]] [[[5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01 5.00000000e-01] [4.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11]] [[4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10] [1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 1.66666667e-01 5.00000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10] [2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01] [6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11 1.00000000e+00]]] [[[3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11] [1.11111111e-01 2.22222222e-01 4.44444444e-01 2.22222222e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10]] [[2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [1.42857143e-01 5.71428571e-01 3.48772321e-11 2.85714286e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]] [[3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00] [4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01]] [[5.00000000e-01 1.66666667e-01 3.33333333e-01 4.06901042e-11] [6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01 7.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11] [2.50000000e-01 3.05175781e-11 3.75000000e-01 3.75000000e-01] [4.00000000e-01 2.00000000e-01 4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11]]] [[[2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10] [5.00000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 2.50000000e-01] [5.00000000e-01 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 5.00000000e-01] [2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01]] [[2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01 2.50000000e-01] [4.88281250e-11 4.00000000e-01 4.88281250e-11 6.00000000e-01] [6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01]] [[5.00000000e-01 6.10351562e-11 6.10351562e-11 5.00000000e-01] [1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.22070312e-10 1.00000000e+00] [2.44140625e-10 2.44140625e-10 9.99999999e-01 2.44140625e-10] [3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11]] [[3.33333333e-01 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11] [8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01 8.13802083e-11 3.33333333e-01] [3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11 8.13802083e-11 6.66666667e-01] [3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 3.33333333e-01 8.13802083e-11]]]]]] AIC = 30287748.393798966 BIC = 30313736.9217434
Text(0.5, 0, 'Order of model')
Реальные данные, представленные геномом бактерии лучше всего описываются Марковской моделью второго порядка, т.е. на букву в каждой позиции влияют буквы в двух предыдущих позициях. Это в целом соотносится с триплетностью генетического кода, т.к. употребление букв внутри триплета обуславливается частотатами кодируемых аминокислот и предпочтением определённых кодонов, вызванным неодинаковой представленностью синонимичных тРНК, а также влиянием используемых триплетов на устойчивость мРНК. При этом четвёртая буква уже будет относиться к следующему кодону и не так сильно зависть от предыдущего кодона. Конечно для аминокислотных последовательностей (а следовательно и для кодонов) тоже имеются предпочтения в использовании, однако пологаю, что влияние этого явления будет меньше. Также стоит отметить, что помимо последовательностей кодирующих белок в геноме имеются участки, к которым применима другая логика. В частности для генома бктерий верно избегание CpG, сайтов эндонуклеаз рестрикции, наличие последовательности Шайна — Дальгарно. Поэтому глобально описать геном бактерии одной Марковской цепью фиксированного порядка не удастся.
К сожалению,трёх семестров математического анализа, одного семестра дифференциальных уравнений, одного семестра линейной алгебры, одного семестра комбинаторики и одного семестра теории вероятностей на ФББ недостаточно, чтобы понять хотя бы малую часть биоалгоритмов. На сколько я понял в предположении эргодичности нужно оценить матрицу переходов k-того порядка по количеству (k+1)-меров и k-меров во всём наборе данных, в то время как остальные матрицы переходов более низких порядков получаются из неё в силу определённых предельных соотношений и должны являться соответствующими собственными векторами полученного тензора. Но я так и не понял, как это решается математически, а тем паче не смог реализовать в коде. Посему в предположении эргодичности все тензоры переходов оцениваю по частотам букв на всём протяжении каждой строки, в то время как без предположения эргодичности оценка проводилась только по первым k буквам каждой строки.
Статья про эргодичность:
Fasino, Dario & Tudisco, Francesco. (2020). Ergodicity coefficients for higher-order stochastic processes.
Статья про поиск собственных векторов (вообще ничего не понял):
Benson, Austin & Gleich, David. (2019). Computing Tensor $Z$-Eigenvectors with Dynamical Systems. SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications. 40. 1311-1324. 10.1137/18M1229584.
print("Real transition matrices of 1-order Markov chain model")
alphabet = "ab"
print_Ps(real_Ps)
AICs, BICs = [], []
orders = [_ for _ in range(4)]
for order in orders:
estimation = MarkovChain(alphabet, order)
estimated_Ps = estimation.fit(seqs, erg=True)
AIC = estimation.AIC()
BIC = estimation.BIC()
AICs.append(AIC)
BICs.append(BIC)
print(f"""
{order}-order Markov chain model with ergodicity
Estimated transition matrices""")
print_Ps(estimated_Ps)
print(f"""
AIC = {AIC}\tBIC = {BIC}
""")
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(nrows=1, ncols=2, figsize = (12,3), tight_layout = True)
ax1.plot(orders, AICs)
ax1.title.set_text("AIC")
ax1.set_xlabel("Order of model")
ax2.plot(orders, BICs)
ax2.title.set_text("BIC")
ax2.set_xlabel("Order of model")
Real transition matrices of 1-order Markov chain model P0= [0.86605874 0.13394126] P1= [[0.14906449 0.85093551] [0.52586667 0.47413333]] 0-order Markov chain model with ergodicity Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.38195333 0.61771333] AIC = 1996218.4365915784 BIC = 1996223.3443468574 1-order Markov chain model with ergodicity Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.38195333 0.61771333] P1= [[0.14907929 0.85059955] [0.52567912 0.47397984]] AIC = 1766562.3018151168 BIC = 1766572.1173256747 2-order Markov chain model with ergodicity Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.38195333 0.61771333] P1= [[0.14907929 0.85059955] [0.52567912 0.47397984]] P2= [[[0.14904229 0.85068843] [0.52562308 0.47405578]] [[0.14907556 0.8505939 ] [0.52573629 0.47390052]]] AIC = 1766566.6025238943 BIC = 1766586.2335450102 3-order Markov chain model with ergodicity Estimated transition matrices P0= [0.38195333 0.61771333] P1= [[0.14907929 0.85059955] [0.52567912 0.47397984]] P2= [[[0.14904229 0.85068843] [0.52562308 0.47405578]] [[0.14907556 0.8505939 ] [0.52573629 0.47390052]]] P3= [[[[0.14697565 0.85271013] [0.52688586 0.47281135]] [[0.1489885 0.85070309] [0.52589022 0.473757 ]]] [[[0.14939782 0.85034051] [0.52540755 0.47426781]] [[0.14917244 0.85047241] [0.52557471 0.47405051]]]] AIC = 1766573.802805225 BIC = 1766613.0648474568
Text(0.5, 0, 'Order of model')
Если оценивать параметры модели вдоль всей последовательности, а не только в начале (надеюсь, что это правильное понимание эргодичности), то качество моделей повышается. Формально лучше всего данные всё ещё описываются моделью первого порядка, однако модели более высоких порядков всё ещё хороши и переобучение ненаблюдается. Бернуллиевская модель всё ещё не достаточна для описания данных.
def make_suseqs(seqs, min_length=6): #функция нарезки подпоследовательностей
subseqs = []
for seq in seqs:
start = np.random.randint(len(seq)-min_length)
subseq = seq[start:]
subseqs.append(subseq)
return subseqs
AICs, BICs = [], []
orders = [_ for _ in range(6)]
alphabet = "ATGC"
for order in orders:
print(f"Ergodicity for {order}-order Markov chain")
# из-за ограничения полной вероятности, количество независимых вероятностей меньше
# (вероятность одной буквы из алфавита выражается через вероятности остальных букв),
# поэтому оставим для тестирования только независимые параметры
full_P = []
for param in full_est_Ps[order]:
param = np.atleast_2d(np.stack(param, axis=-1))
for tup in np.ndindex((*param.shape[:-1],param.shape[-1]-1)):
tup1=(*tup[:-1],tup[-1])
full_P.append(param[tup1])
Pss = [[] for _ in range(order+1)]
for i in range(20):
B_subseqs = make_suseqs(B_seqs)
estimation = MarkovChain(alphabet, order)
estimated_Ps = estimation.fit(B_subseqs, erg=False)
for est_P, all_P in zip(estimated_Ps, Pss):
all_P.append(est_P)
# оставим для тестирования только независимые параметры
samples = []
for param in Pss:
param = np.stack(param, axis=-1)
for tup in np.ndindex((*param.shape[:-2],param.shape[-2]-1)):
tup1=(*tup,slice(None))
samples.append(param[tup1])
pvalues = []
for sample, p in zip(samples, full_P):
statistic, pvalue = ss.ttest_1samp(sample, p)
pvalues.append(pvalue)
reject, pvalues_corr, alphacSidak, alphacBonf = smm.multipletests(pvalues, alpha=0.05, method="bonferroni")
print(f"Does any probability differ?\t{(reject == True).any()}")
Ergodicity for 0-order Markov chain Does any probability differ? True Ergodicity for 1-order Markov chain Does any probability differ? True Ergodicity for 2-order Markov chain Does any probability differ? True Ergodicity for 3-order Markov chain Does any probability differ? True Ergodicity for 4-order Markov chain Does any probability differ? True Ergodicity for 5-order Markov chain Does any probability differ? True
Во первых я не уверен в корректности применения t-теста, хотя бы потому, что данный тест предполагает нормальность данность, а распределение вероятностей точно не нормально, т.к. $0 \le p \le 1$. Так же оценка вероятностей производилась по доле соответствующих k-меров в наборе последовательностей. Для них можно было бы применить одновыборочный t-тест (или даже z-тест) пропорций, однако тогда не ясно зачем проводить 20 итераций и как делать поправку на множественное тестирование. Поэтому был поведён t-тест на равенство среднего значения параметра в 20 повторах значению соответсвующего параметра в оценки из задачи 2.2. При этом было учтено, что из всех $\sum_{i=1}^{order+1}|A|^i$ параметров модели независимыми являются только $|A|^{order+1}-1$. Также была применена поправка на множественное тестирование гипотез (FWER: Бонферрони), чтобы отвергнуть как можно меньшее число нулевых гипотез, тем не менее доказать эргодичность не удалось. На реальных данных модель любого порядка даёт различные параметры для подпоследовательностей и исходных последовательностей. Это грустно, но, возможно, что так и должно быть.